{"id":26146,"date":"2014-10-06T10:46:42","date_gmt":"2014-10-06T08:46:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ocasapiens-dweb.blogautore.repubblica.it\/?p=26146"},"modified":"2014-10-06T10:46:42","modified_gmt":"2014-10-06T08:46:42","slug":"scommesse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/2014\/10\/06\/scommesse\/","title":{"rendered":"Scommesse"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Per i <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nobelprize.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">premi Nobel<\/a>, David <a href=\"http:\/\/www.timeshighereducation.co.uk\/news\/nobel-prizes-us-dominates-predictions\/2016167.article\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pendlebury <\/a>della\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/thomsonreuters.com\/press-releases\/092014\/2014-nobel-laureates-predictions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Thomson Reuters<\/a>\u00a0ha pubblicato le proprie previsioni:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/sciencewatch.com\/nobel\/2014-predictions\/medicine-laureates\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Medicina<\/a>: 7 uomini<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nobelprize.org\/nobel_prizes\/medicine\/laureates\/2014\/press.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Invece<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>(link e commenti aggiunti)<br \/>\n<em>The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine 2014 was awarded with one half to John O&#8217;Keefe <\/em>(University College, Londra, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.kavlifoundation.org\/kavli-prize\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">premio Kavli<\/a> per le neuroscienze un mese fa) <em>and the other half jointly to <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MayBrittMoser\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">May-Britt Moser<\/a> and Edvard I. Moser <\/em>(<a href=\"http:\/\/www.ntnu.edu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Universit\u00e0 di Trondheim<\/a>, entrambi post-doc di O&#8217;Keefe e dei giovanotti rispetto alla media!)\u00a0<em>for their discoveries of cells that constitute a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nobelprize.org\/nobel_prizes\/medicine\/laureates\/2014\/advanced-medicineprize2014.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">positioning system in the brain<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/sciencewatch.com\/nobel\/2014-predictions\/physics-laureates\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Fisica<\/a>: 7 uomini<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/sciencewatch.com\/nobel\/2014-predictions\/chemistry-laureates\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Chimica<\/a>: 8 uomini di cui un italiano emigrato in Australia<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/sciencewatch.com\/nobel\/2014-predictions\/economics-laureates\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Economia<\/a>: 5 uomini, tutti americani<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>Per gli scommettitori di Ladbrokes i favoriti sono Haruki Murakami e Ngugi wa Thiong&#8217;o per la letteratura; Edward Snowden e il Papa per la <a href=\"http:\/\/timesofindia.indiatimes.com\/world\/europe\/Whistleblower-Snowden-Pope-Francis-tipped-for-2014-Nobel-peace-prize\/articleshow\/44216573.cms\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">pace<\/a>.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: center\">***<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: center\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/upload.wikimedia.org\/wikipedia\/commons\/0\/0f\/Recent_Sea_Level_Rise.png\" \/><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\">Su <em>Nature Climate Change<\/em>, William Llovel et al. del Jet Propulsion Lab, Caltech ecc. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/nclimate\/journal\/vaop\/ncurrent\/full\/nclimate2387.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">dicono<\/a> che 10 anni di dati Argo sull&#8217;aumento del livello del mare non bastano per distinguere il contributo del riscaldamento degli oceani sotto i 2.000 metri al bilancio energetico globale:<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\">\u00a0<em>Accounting for additional possible systematic uncertainties, the deep ocean (below 2,000 m) contributes ?0.13 \u00b1 0.72 mm yr<sup>?1<\/sup>\u00a0to global sea-level rise and ?0.08 \u00b1 0.43 W m<sup>?2<\/sup>\u00a0to Earth\u2019s energy balance. \u00a0<\/em><em>The net warming of the ocean implies an energy imbalance for the Earth of 0.64 \u00b1 0.44 W m<sup>?2<\/sup>\u00a0from 2005 to 2013.<\/em><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\"><span style=\"font-size: 13px\">Allora dov&#8217;\u00e8 finito il &#8220;calore mancante&#8221;?\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 13px\">Paul Durack et al. del Jet Propulsion Lab e del Lawrence Livermore <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/nclimate\/journal\/vaop\/ncurrent\/full\/nclimate2389.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ri-stimano<\/a> l&#8217;Ocean Heat Content fino a 700 m di profondit\u00e0 per l&#8217;emisfero sud usando dati satellitari e delle sonde &#8211; in totale 1970-2012 &#8211; e fanno la somma in un modello:<\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\"><em>These adjustments yield large increases (2.2\u20137.1 \u00d7 10<sup>22<\/sup>\u00a0J 35 yr<sup>?1<\/sup>) to current global upper-ocean heat content change estimates, and have important implications for sea level, the planetary energy budget and climate sensitivity assessments.<\/em><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\">Circa il 40% in pi\u00f9 delle stime precedenti.\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www-pcmdi.llnl.gov\/about\/staff\/Durack\/dump\/oceanwarming\/140930_Duracketal_UpperOceanWarming-MediaRelease.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Com. stampa<\/a>, &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www-pcmdi.llnl.gov\/about\/staff\/Durack\/dump\/oceanwarming\/140926a_Duracketal_UpperOceanWarming.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">press copy<\/a>&#8221; del paper, FAQ e immagini qui.\u00a0Le &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/cpo.noaa.gov\/Home\/AllNews\/TabId\/315\/ArtMID\/668\/ArticleID\/72606\/Deep-Argo-floats-deployed-in-Pacific.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Deep Argo<\/a>&#8220;, per ora in prova nel Pacifico sud, dovrebbero ridurre le incertezze. Ne parla\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com\/2014\/10\/06\/an-ohc-update\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ATTP<\/a>, anche perch\u00e9 se Durack et al. \u00e8 corretto, il periodo finale scelto da Curry &amp; Lewis per calcolare l&#8217;effetto di un raddoppio della CO2 atmosferica produce la stesso valore minino dei papers valutati dall&#8217;IPCC&#8230;<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\">Cattive <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/nclimate\/journal\/vaop\/ncurrent\/full\/nclimate2388.html#affil-auth\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">notizie<\/a> anche da <a href=\"https:\/\/www.uea.ac.uk\/devresearch\/research-themes\/climate-change\/dabo-guan-dev-visiting-professor\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Dabo\u00a0Guan\u00a0<\/a>et al.:<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\"><em style=\"font-size: 13px\">China committed itself to reduce the carbon intensity of its economy (the amount of CO2\u00a0emitted per unit of GDP) by 40\u201345% during 2005\u20132020. Yet, between 2002 and 2009, China experienced a 3% increase in carbon intensity, though trends differed greatly among its 30 provinces.\u00a0<\/em><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\">Calcoli suddivisi per provincia nei <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/nclimate\/journal\/vaop\/ncurrent\/extref\/nclimate2388-s1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">materiali supplementari<\/a>, e <a href=\"https:\/\/www.uea.ac.uk\/mac\/comm\/media\/press\/2014\/October\/China-carbon-water\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">com. stampa.<\/a>\u00a0Dabo Guan ha anche pubblicato <a href=\"http:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/feature\/the-beijing-bubble-will-chinas-housing-addiction-damage-the-10941\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">questa ricerca<\/a> deprimente sull&#8217;inquinamento delle acque:<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\"><em>water intensity improvements can effectively offset annual freshwater consumption and COD<\/em> (chemical oxygen demand) d<em>ischarge driven by per capita GDP growth, but that it had failed to eliminate cumulative pollution in water bodies.<\/em><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: center\">*<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\"><span style=\"text-align: left;font-size: 13px\">Climalteranti <\/span><a style=\"text-align: left;font-size: 13px\" href=\"http:\/\/www.climalteranti.it\/2014\/10\/03\/il-nuovo-catasto-dei-ghiacciai-italiani-le-superfici-glaciali-diminuite-del-40-dagli-anni-ottanta-ad-oggi\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">presenta<\/a><span style=\"text-align: left;font-size: 13px\"> il nuovo catasto dei ghiacciai italiani, si sono ridotti del 40% rispetto al 1984. \u00a0E s&#8217;\u00e8 ridotta anche la &#8220;pausa&#8221; del risc. glob. nella serie HadCrut <\/span><a style=\"text-align: left;font-size: 13px\" href=\"http:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/hadobs\/hadcrut4\/data\/versions\/HadCRUT.4.3.0.0_release_notes.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">aggiornata<\/a><span style=\"text-align: left;font-size: 13px\"> con pi\u00f9 dati per l&#8217;Artico (la differenza \u00e8 ovvia nella curva nera del<\/span><a style=\"text-align: left;font-size: 13px\" href=\"http:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/hadobs\/hadcrut4\/data\/current\/update_diagnostics\/nh.gif\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> secondo grafico<\/a><span style=\"text-align: left;font-size: 13px\">).<\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: center\">***<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\">Per la <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cbd.int\/cop2014\/default.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">12ma conferenza<\/a> della Conferenza mondiale per la biodiversit\u00e0 che si tiene da oggi in Corea del Sud, \u00e8 uscito il<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com\/ap1-www-docs\/gbo4\/gbo4-en.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Global Biodiversity Outlook 2014,<\/a> una valutazione dei progressi fatti per realizzare il piano 2010-2020. Molto pochi:<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\"><em>based on current trends, pressures on biodiversity will continue to increase until 2020&#8230; Analysis of the major primary sectors indicates that drivers linked to agriculture account for 70 per cent of the projected loss of terrestrial biodiversity.<\/em><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: center\">***<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\"><strong>Dovevo scommetterci<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\">Il <a href=\"https:\/\/retractionwatch.files.wordpress.com\/2014\/08\/translational-neurodegeneration.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">paper<\/a>\u00a0che\u00a0l&#8217;ing. Brian Hooker &#8211; un sostenitore di Andrew Wakefield e di <a href=\"http:\/\/scienceblogs.com\/insolence\/2013\/04\/03\/brian-hooker-criticizes-a-vaccine-safety-study-hilarity-ensues\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">cure alternative<\/a> &#8211; s&#8217;era comprato in open access per ipotizzare una correlazione tra vaccino trivalente e autismo senza <a href=\"http:\/\/scienceblogs.com\/insolence\/2014\/08\/22\/brian-hooker-proves-andrew-wakefield-wrong-about-vaccines-and-autism\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">riuscire a trovarla<\/a>, \u00e8 stato <a href=\"http:\/\/www.translationalneurodegeneration.com\/content\/3\/1\/22\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ritrattato<\/a> da <em>Translational Neurodegeneration<\/em><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\"><em>\u00a0there were undeclared competing interests on the part of the author which compromised the peer review process. <\/em><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\">un &#8220;procedimento&#8221; insolitamente breve.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\"><em>Furthermore, post-publication peer review raised concerns about the validity of the methods and statistical analysis, therefore the Editors no longer have confidence in the soundness of the findings<\/em>.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\">In USA come qui si moltiplicano i ciarlatani che spacciano prevenzioni e terapie anti-Ebola. In USA, la FDA li obbliga a cancellare le <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fda.gov\/ICECI\/EnforcementActions\/WarningLetters\/2014\/ucm415809.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">r\u00e9clame fraudolenti<\/a>. \u00a0(1)<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\">In <a href=\"http:\/\/www.scienzaeconoscenza.it\/articolo\/prevenzione-cure-naturali-virus-ebola-italia.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Italia<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.farmaciagraziani.it\/la-febbre-emorragica-causata-dal-virus-ebola\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">spaccio<\/a>\u00a0e <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mednat.org\/vaccini\/ebola_vaccini.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">menzogne<\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/autismovaccini.org\/2014\/08\/08\/ebola-informazioni-per-non-lasciarsi-intorpidire\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">continuano<\/a>\u00a0come\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.disinformazione.it\/ebola.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">prima<\/a>\u00a0e l&#8217;altro ieri ci si \u00e8 messo pure <em>Il Giornale<\/em> con <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nextquotidiano.it\/rischio-ebola-italia\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">un&#8217;intervista<\/a> a Montagnier.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\"><strong>(1)<\/strong>\u00a0 Era successo anche a\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.fda.gov\/ICECI\/EnforcementActions\/WarningLetters\/2012\/ucm318809.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Lanc\u00f4me\u00a0<\/a>per i prodotti G\u00e9nifique&#8230;<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Per i premi Nobel, David Pendlebury della\u00a0Thomson Reuters\u00a0ha pubblicato le proprie previsioni: Medicina: 7 uomini Invece\u00a0(link e commenti aggiunti) The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine 2014 was awarded with one half to John O&#8217;Keefe (University College, Londra, premio Kavli per le neuroscienze un mese fa) and the other half jointly to May-Britt Moser and&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/2014\/10\/06\/scommesse\/\">Continua a leggere <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Scommesse<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,8,10,11,20,22],"tags":[688,866,2109,2995,3312,4856,4956,5959,7112],"class_list":["post-26146","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ambiente","category-bufala","category-clima","category-cronaca","category-medicina","category-neuroscienze","tag-autismo","tag-biodiversita","tag-ebola","tag-ghiacciai","tag-hhadcrut4","tag-nobel-medicina","tag-ohc","tag-ritrattazioni","tag-vaccino","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26146","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26146"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26146\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26146"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26146"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26146"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}