{"id":29307,"date":"2016-01-27T18:28:16","date_gmt":"2016-01-27T17:28:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ocasapiens-dweb.blogautore.repubblica.it\/?p=29307"},"modified":"2021-12-05T23:31:58","modified_gmt":"2021-12-05T22:31:58","slug":"evidence-synthesis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/2016\/01\/27\/evidence-synthesis\/","title":{"rendered":"Evidence synthesis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Accid&#8230; ecco dov&#8217;era finito il post-it! Sotto il ripiano del tavolo della cucina. Non so come ci sia arrivato, comunque ha un adesivo eccezionale: stava l\u00ec da pi\u00f9 di un mese&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Un paio di anni fa la Banca Mondiale <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/documents.worldbank.org\/curated\/en\/2014\/05\/19456376\/world-bank-reports-widely-read-world-bank-reports-widely-read\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">aveva scoperto<\/a><\/strong> che quasi nessuno legge la valutazione dei progetti che finanzia e co-finanzia nei paesi poveri: educazione, agricoltura, energia, protezione di ecosistemi, adattamento ai cambiamenti climatici, igiene, sanit\u00e0 e altre iniziative che rientrano nello &#8220;sviluppo sostenibile&#8221;. Figurarsi se qualcuno legge i rapporti che segnalo, magari letti di corsa, o soltanto il sommario e un&#8217;occhiata alle figure&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Good news.\u00a0<\/strong>Da quest&#8217;anno niente scuse. Alcuni centri universitari e Ong specializzate in &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/environmentalevidencejournal.biomedcentral.com\/articles\/10.1186\/2047-2382-3-16\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">evidence synthesis<\/a>&#8221; raccolgono, valutano, riassumono rapporti, rassegne,<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">\u00a0analisi, meta-analisi ecc. spesso uscite su riviste a pagamento che le Ong non si possono permettere.\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Conviene usarne le sintesi, cos\u00ec sono incoraggiati a produrne altre e i donatori istituzionali, e non, a sostenerli.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.3ieimpact.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">International Initiative for Impact Evaluation<\/a>\u00a0(i3e)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.environmentalevidence.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Collaboration for Environmental Evidence<\/a>\u00a0(CEE)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/eppi.ioe.ac.uk\/cms\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Evidence for Policy and Practice Information<\/a>\u00a0(EPPI)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.snap.is\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Science for Nature and People Partnership<\/a>\u00a0(SNAP)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Forse \u00e8 meglio cominciare dalle <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.3ieimpact.org\/en\/evidence\/gap-maps\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">mappe<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0tematiche dell&#8217;i3e per poi passare su SNAP che le mostra su un<strong> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.snap.is\/snapblog\/a-global-database-of-natural-coastal-defenses-where-when-how-and-how-well-do-they-work\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">atlante<\/a><\/strong>. Tanto per farsi un&#8217;idea di carenze, ingiustizie, ostacoli.<br \/>\nA proposito di ostacoli, Transparency International ha pubblicato il Perceived Corruption Index 2015. L&#8217;Italia migliora di 1 punto (su 100) rispetto all&#8217;anno scorso e scende al\u00a0<strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.transparency.org\/cpi2015#results-table\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">&#8230; posto<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">***<\/p>\n<p><strong>Other news<\/strong><br \/>\nStando ai dati satellitari, <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.pnas.org\/content\/early\/2016\/01\/20\/1519132113.abstract\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">scrivono<\/a> <\/strong>R.Rietbroek et al sui <em>PNAS<\/em>, dall&#8217;inizio del secolo l&#8217;espansione termica, e quindi il livello, degli oceani sta aumentando pi\u00f9 velocemente:<\/p>\n<p><em>Over the years 2002\u20132014, we find a global mean steric trend of 1.38 \u00b1 0.16 mm\/y, compared with a total trend of 2.74 \u00b1 0.58 mm\/y.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/idw-online.de\/en\/news644897\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Com.stampa <\/a><\/strong>del Wegener Institut:<\/p>\n<p><em>Effect is twice as large as the melting ice masses in Greenland.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Anche la fusione della calotta groenlandese sta accelerando.<\/p>\n<p><em>Until now, it was assumed that sea levels rose an average of 0.7 to 1.0 millimeters a year due to this \u201cthermometer effect.\u201d According to the new calculations, however, the ocean\u2019s expansion contributed with about 1.4 millimeters a year \u2013 in other words, almost twice as much as previously assumed. \u201cThis height difference corresponds to roughly twice the volume from the melting ice sheets in Greenland,\u201d says Dr. Rietbroek.<\/em><br \/>\nLo Sceicco della Brianza vender\u00e0 gli appartamenti di Miami Beach per comprarli a Davos?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">*<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Too many minions spoil the plot<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Il fisico David Grimes s&#8217;\u00e8 divertito a<strong>\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/journals.plos.org\/plosone\/article?id=10.1371\/journal.pone.0147905\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">dimostrare\u00a0<\/a><\/strong>che il risc. glob. (tra altre cospirazioni immaginarie) non pu\u00f2 essere un gomblotto:<\/p>\n<p><em>Parameters for the model are estimated from literature examples of known scandals, and the factors influencing conspiracy success and failure are explored. The model is also used to estimate the likelihood of claims from some commonly-held conspiratorial beliefs; these are namely that the moon-landings were faked, climate-change is a hoax, vaccination is dangerous and that a cure for cancer is being suppressed by vested interests. Simulations of these claims predict that intrinsic failure would be imminent even with the most generous estimates for the secret-keeping ability of active participants\u2014the results of this model suggest that large conspiracies (1000 agents) quickly become untenable and prone to failure. The theory presented here might be useful in counteracting the potentially deleterious consequences of bogus and anti-science narratives, and examining the hypothetical conditions<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ox.ac.uk\/news\/2016-01-26-too-many-minions-spoil-plot\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Com. stampa<\/a><\/strong> dell&#8217;univ. di Oxford:<\/p>\n<p><em>Dr Grimes said: &#8216;Not everyone who believes in a conspiracy is unreasonable or unthinking. I hope that by showing how eye-wateringly unlikely some alleged conspiracies are, some people will reconsider their anti-science beliefs.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/images.memes.com\/meme\/191061\" alt=\"Oh Really?\" \/><br \/>\nAggiunta: <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/littleatoms.com\/david-grimes-conspiracy-theory-maths\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Oh really?<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Accid&#8230; ecco dov&#8217;era finito il post-it! Sotto il ripiano del tavolo della cucina. Non so come ci sia arrivato, comunque ha un adesivo eccezionale: stava l\u00ec da pi\u00f9 di un mese&#8230; Un paio di anni fa la Banca Mondiale aveva scoperto che quasi nessuno legge la valutazione dei progetti che finanzia e co-finanzia nei paesi&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/2016\/01\/27\/evidence-synthesis\/\">Continua a leggere <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Evidence synthesis<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,10,15,23,25],"tags":[1211,1527,2355,3377,4015,6380,6901],"class_list":["post-29307","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ambiente","category-clima","category-economia","category-non-profit","category-politica","tag-cee","tag-complottismo","tag-eppi","tag-i3e","tag-livello-del-mare","tag-snap","tag-transparency-international","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29307","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29307"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29307\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":43956,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29307\/revisions\/43956"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29307"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29307"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29307"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}