{"id":29495,"date":"2016-02-23T13:57:05","date_gmt":"2016-02-23T12:57:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ocasapiens-dweb.blogautore.repubblica.it\/?p=29495"},"modified":"2021-12-06T18:33:13","modified_gmt":"2021-12-06T17:33:13","slug":"considera-larmadillo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/2016\/02\/23\/considera-larmadillo\/","title":{"rendered":"Considera l'armadillo"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ho preso il titolo dalla trasmissione condotta da Cecilia Di Lieto, a radio pop<\/a>, per festeggiare in ritardo il Darwin Day e le “affinit\u00e0 genetiche dei gliptodonti estinti”, con tanto di albero genealogico (mitocondriale), pubblicate su Current Biology<\/a>\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>da Fr\u00e9d\u00e9ric Delsuc<\/a> <\/strong>del CNRS di Montpellier et al.:<\/p>\n

Among the fossils of hitherto unknown mammals that Darwin collected in South America between 1832 and 1833 during the Beagle expedition were examples of the large, heavily armored herbivores later known as glyptodonts.<\/em> (…)<\/p>\n

Our phylogenetic reconstructions establish that glyptodonts are in fact deeply nested within the armadillo crown-group, representing a distinct subfamily (Glyptodontinae) within family Chlamyphoridae. Molecular dating suggests that glyptodonts diverged no earlier than around 35 million years ago, in good agreement with their fossil record. Our results highlight the derived nature of the glyptodont morphotype, one aspect of which is a spectacular increase in body size until their extinction at the end of the last ice age.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

“Aumento spettacolare delle dimensioni”<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

This inference is in line with the fossil record, which indicates that glyptodonts evolved from medium-sized forms in the Miocene (e.g.,\u00a0Propalaehoplophorus, ?80 kg) to become true megafauna in the Pleistocene (e.g.,\u00a0Glyptodon clavipes, ?2,000 kg<\/strong>) before disappearing with most other South American large mammals some 10,000 years ago.<\/em><\/p>\n

Bref, parevano carri armati, d’altronde l’ordine \u00e8 quello dei\u00a0Cingolati<\/strong>.<\/a>..<\/p>\n

*<\/p>\n

\"Now<\/p>\n

Immagine presa in prestito da Steph<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Sui\u00a0PNAS<\/a><\/em><\/strong>, Robert Kopp et al. coordinati da Stefan Rahmstorf<\/a>\u00a0presentano<\/p>\n

\u00a0the first, to our knowledge, estimate of global sea-level (GSL) change over the last ?3,000 years that is based upon statistical synthesis of a global database of regional sea-level reconstructions. GSL varied by ?\u00b18 cm over the pre-Industrial Common Era, with a notable decline over 1000\u20131400 CE coinciding with ca. 0.2 \u00b0C of global cooling. The 20th century rise was extremely likely faster than during any of the 27 previous centuries.<\/strong> Semiempirical modeling indicates that, without global warming, GSL in the 20th century very likely would have risen by between ?3 cm and +7 cm, rather than the ?14 cm observed…<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Grafico riassuntivo<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Dal canto loro, Matthias Mengel del PIK et al. stimano<\/a><\/strong> l’innalzamento del livello del mare da qui al 2100<\/p>\n

Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28\u201356 cm, 37\u201377 cm, and 57\u2013131 cm in 2100<\/strong> for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.<\/em><\/p>\n

Nel com. stampa<\/a><\/strong>, il PIK sottolinea l’utilit\u00e0 delle due ricerche (la ricostruzione della prima vincola empiricamente le proiezioni della seconda) \u00a0per la pianificazione del territorio costiero. E Stefan Rahmstorf lancia frecciatine ai negaioli:<\/p>\n

\u201cOur study\u00a0 is for sea level what the now well-confirmed famous \u2018hockey stick\u2019 diagram was for global temperature,\u201d says Stefan Rahmstorf, co-author of the paper on past sea-level rise and Co-Chair of PIK\u2019s research domain Earth System Analysis. (…) <\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Confirming previous assumptions, as boring as it might sound, is of key relevance for the progress of science. \u201cWe can now show the effect in an unprecedentedly robust way, based upon the statistical analysis of a global database of regional sea-level reconstructions,\u201d says Rahmstorf. \u201cThe new sea-level data confirm once again just how unusual the age of modern global warming due to our greenhouse gas emissions is \u2013 and they demonstrate that one of the most dangerous impacts of global warming, rising seas, is well underway.\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Grassetto mio.\u00a0Articolo divulgativo<\/a><\/strong> di Stefan Rahmstorf da Real Climate, con bibliografia semplificata e mini-rassegna stampa.<\/p>\n

Rimmel del giorno<\/strong><\/p>\n

Non solo the “Planet is not overheating<\/a>” dal 1998, titolano un paio di quotidiani appartenenti a Rupert Murdoch, ma non si scalder\u00e0 oltre. Lo prevede l’econometrista\u00a0Terence Mills<\/a>, noto per aver comprato da\u00a0uno spennapolli<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0una pubblicazione che doveva smentire l’effetto serra dei gas serra perch\u00e9 non trovava una tendenza lineare tra il loro aumento e quello della temperatura (non tutti i suoi paper sono crackpot<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Questa volta \u00e8 stato pagato \u00a33000 dalla\u00a0Gentlemen Who Prefer Fantasies<\/a>\u00a0per immaginare che esista un’unica stagione e\u00a0l’Inghilterra centrale sia l’intero pianeta. Siccome in 350 anni gli inverni locali si sono riscaldati di 1 \u00b0C, dopo una faticosa “mathturbation<\/a>” delle serie HadCRUT<\/a><\/strong>, ma solo dal 1975, e RSS dal 2000 \u00a0(che mostrano anomalie, mentre la serie Central England mostra le temperature). gli risulta che entro il 2100 la tendenza rester\u00e0 stazionaria: la temperatura media aumenter\u00e0\/scender\u00e0 al massimo di 0,25 \u00b0C.<\/p>\n

La climatologia, dice nell’introduzione, deve imparare la statistica dagli econometristi – i quali, si sa, non sbagliano mai una previsione.<\/p>\n

agg. ore 20 –\u00a0<\/strong>Gavin Schmidt<\/a><\/strong> ha aggiornato i suoi grafici con la temperatura osservata l’anno scorso. La curva nera e quella verde sono l’intervallo di confidenza della proiezione di \u00a0Mills:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

“The GWPF is funny”<\/a>, <\/strong>indeed. Scrive ATTP (astrofisico):<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s the key point; projecting future warming\u00a0requires\u00a0<\/b>some kind of estimate for future emissions. Trying to forecast future warming using some model with no physics and based only on past temperatures is obvious nonsense. Even a Professor of Statistics should be able to get this utterly trivial point. Maybe Terence Mills is so clueless that he really can\u2019t grasp what is a pretty straightforward concept. Alternatively, maybe \u00a33000 was enough for him to put his name to a report that he knew was garbage.<\/em><\/p>\n

Forecast:<\/p>\n

Whichever it is, I fully expect Richard Tol to come along and defend it.<\/em><\/p>\n

Centrato<\/a>:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Mills finds that the three temperature records are non-stationary rather than trend-stationary. The forecasts follow mechanically. Note that 1 in 20 observations is supposed to be outside the 95% confidence interval, so the probability of observing 1 in 12 outside the confidence interval is about 35%.<\/em>
\nThe challenge is to explain why trend-stationarity \u2014 which corresponds to a greenhouse signal \u2014 is rejected in favour of non-stationarity \u2014 which corresponds to natural variability. None of the commenters above rises to this challenge.<\/em><\/p>\n

Ma Richard Tol \u00e8 l’economista del club Gentlemen Who Prefer Fantasies che dava la colpa delle proprie\u00a0cantonate<\/a> sui benefici del riscaldamento globale<\/a> ai “gremlins<\/strong><\/a>” (giuro<\/a><\/strong>).<\/p>\n

***<\/p>\n

Sorveglianza vs privacy\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fra quelli che ho letto (pochi), l’articolo su FBI vs Apple pi\u00f9 informato e convincente, mi sembra quello di <\/span>Bruce Schneier<\/a>:<\/strong>
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

The FBI\u00a0told the county<\/a>\u00a0to\u00a0change the password<\/a>\u00a0on the phone — that’s why they can’t get in.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Oh vey!<\/p>\n

Soldi vs privacy<\/strong><\/p>\n

Paul Knoepfler<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0interviene su un tema affine. La\u00a0US Stem Cell Inc (ex Bioheart Inc.)\u00a0che in Florida vende “cure” a base di staminali\u00a0dall’efficacia non\u00a0dimostrata<\/a><\/strong>, \u00e8 stata denunciata da una paziente. Ora\u00a0chiede al tribunale di esigere l’identit\u00e0 dei commentatori che avrebbero fatto calare le sue azioni<\/strong><\/a> in borsa, parlando della denuncia sui forum per investitori – dove la societ\u00e0\u00a0pubblica<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0com. stampa che dovrebbero aumentarne il valore…<\/p>\n

E’ tuttora in corso<\/a><\/strong> il processo Sarkar \u00a0vs. PubPeer<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>che potrebbe stabilire un precedente.
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ho preso il titolo dalla trasmissione condotta da Cecilia Di Lieto, a radio pop, per festeggiare in ritardo il Darwin Day e le “affinit\u00e0 genetiche dei gliptodonti estinti”, con tanto di albero genealogico (mitocondriale), pubblicate su Current Biology\u00a0da Fr\u00e9d\u00e9ric Delsuc del CNRS di Montpellier et al.: Among the fossils of hitherto unknown mammals that Darwin… Continua a leggere Considera l'armadillo<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,8,10,17],"tags":[162,553,2147,2483,2584,3112,3234,3533,4330,4563,5882,6767],"class_list":["post-29495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-altri-animali","category-bufala","category-clima","category-genetica","tag-adattamento","tag-apple","tag-editoria-predona","tag-evoluzione","tag-fbi","tag-gliptodonti","tag-gwpf","tag-innalzamento-del-livello-del-mare","tag-mazza-da-hockey","tag-modelli","tag-richard-tol","tag-terence-mills","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29495","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29495"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29495\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":44011,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29495\/revisions\/44011"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29495"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29495"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29495"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}