{"id":29804,"date":"2016-04-21T15:59:52","date_gmt":"2016-04-21T13:59:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ocasapiens-dweb.blogautore.repubblica.it\/?p=29804"},"modified":"2021-12-07T17:58:51","modified_gmt":"2021-12-07T16:58:51","slug":"agli-americani-piace-caldo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/2016\/04\/21\/agli-americani-piace-caldo\/","title":{"rendered":"Agli americani piace caldo"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Caro Stefano (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.edizioniambiente.it\/libri\/161\/a-qualcuno-piace-caldo\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Caserini<\/a>),<br \/>\nsu <em>Nature<\/em> c&#8217;\u00e8 un<strong> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/nature\/journal\/v532\/n7599\/full\/nature17441.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">paper<\/a><\/strong> che fa per te. Patrick Egan, scienze politiche &#8211; NY University, e Megan Mullis, scienze ambientali &#8211; Duke, hanno cercato di capire qual \u00e8 il clima preferito dalla maggioranza dei residenti in USA:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<ul>\n<li><em>We investigated our hypothesis using 40 years of daily weather data reported in the Global Surface Summary of the Day and the US Historical Climatology Network data sets.\u00a0After assigning weather stations to counties based on station distance from county population centroids, we calculated annual means of weather indicators weighted by 2010 county population.\u00a0We used constant population weights\u2014rather than adjusting them for shifts over time in county population\u2014to isolate the impact of weather trends from any changes in aggregate exposure attributable to population growth or migration<span style=\"font-size: 11.6667px;\">.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Da questi dati hanno tratto un Weather Preference Index.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<ul>\n<li><em>The WPI\u2019s unit of measure is the \u00a0ceteris paribus\u00a0expected rate of population change associated with that year\u2019s weather. In using these studies for our purposes, we assume that, all things being equal, Americans move to, and continue to reside in, places with local climates that they prefer.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Risultato: un buon 80% della popolazione preferisce gli inverni miti e le estati non afose, quindi \u00e8 soddisfatto dell&#8217;aumento della temperatura avvenuto tra il 1974 e il 2013. <span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Egan e Mullis provano a capire se sar\u00e0 altrettanto soddisfatto da quello previsto nei vari scenari tra il 2025 e il 2100.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Our projections indicate that this may change in the decades to come as trends shift and weather becomes less pleasant. Both now and in the future, the public\u2019s evaluations of the weather changes brought about by climate change should be taken into account by scientists and others seeking to explain the problem, mobilize concern and catalyse policy response.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Con margini di incertezza. E parecchi buchi, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/nature\/journal\/v532\/n7599\/full\/532317a.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>scrive<\/strong>\u00a0<\/a>Joacim\u00a0Rockl\u00f6v, per esempio<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<ul>\n<li><em>A strength of the study is that it isolates the effect of long-term changes in daily weather on behaviour. But it does not incorporate the effects of weather extremes, which might be seen as a limitation. Public opinion, and potentially behaviour, is affected by extreme events and may catalyse support for emissions reductions\u2014 although such effects can be short-lived, as the authors have shown previously.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>C&#8217;\u00e8 anche un problema nel modello:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Another limitation of the study is that populations are assumed to remain in counties for which the WPI indicates public displeasure with climate. According to the definition of the index, such displeasure should contribute to migration out of those areas. The future, population-weighted change in the WPI is therefore likely to be less extreme than that reported, solely because people will move away from regions that develop unsatisfying climate conditions.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Comunque:<br \/>\n<em>Egan and Mullin show that it may be hard for Americans to understand how changes in climate can be a catastrophe when such changes apparently make daily life more pleasant. The United States is one of the most influential countries in global policymaking, and one of the greatest emitters of greenhouse gases.<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">***<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/news\/multibillion-euro-innovation-hub-slammed-by-auditors-1.19753\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Quirin Schiermeier <\/a>riassume <a href=\"http:\/\/www.eca.europa.eu\/en\/Pages\/NewsItem.aspx?nid=6771\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">il rapporto<\/a> della Corte dei conti europea sui soldi sprecati dallo\u00a0European Institute of Innovation and Technology; ce ne sono altri&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Caro Stefano (Caserini), su Nature c&#8217;\u00e8 un paper che fa per te. Patrick Egan, scienze politiche &#8211; NY University, e Megan Mullis, scienze ambientali &#8211; Duke, hanno cercato di capire qual \u00e8 il clima preferito dalla maggioranza dei residenti in USA: We investigated our hypothesis using 40 years of daily weather data reported in the&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/2016\/04\/21\/agli-americani-piace-caldo\/\">Continua a leggere <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Agli americani piace caldo<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[2184,4725],"class_list":["post-29804","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-clima","tag-eit","tag-nature","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29804","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29804"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29804\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":44132,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29804\/revisions\/44132"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29804"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29804"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29804"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}