{"id":30499,"date":"2016-08-24T14:19:57","date_gmt":"2016-08-24T12:19:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ocasapiens-dweb.blogautore.repubblica.it\/?p=30499"},"modified":"2021-12-08T15:49:04","modified_gmt":"2021-12-08T14:49:04","slug":"strawman-award-ii-the-atmosfear","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/2016\/08\/24\/strawman-award-ii-the-atmosfear\/","title":{"rendered":"Strawman award II – The atmosfear"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dev’essere un’epidemia (h\/t Climate of Gavin<\/a>). Stando a Vladimir Jankovic e David Schultz<\/a>,\u00a0gli scienziati del clima sono rei di diffondere l’atmosfifa (atmosfear<\/a><\/strong>), un allarmismo riguardante l’aumento tendenziale della frequenza e\/o intensit\u00e0 degli eventi meteo estremi \u00a0– alluvioni, siccit\u00e0, ondate di calore, tempeste ecc. – in regime di riscaldamento globale.<\/p>\n

I dati che <\/a>dimostrano quell’aumento<\/a>\u00a0sono\u00a0falsificati<\/a>, si presume, essendo\u00a0escluso a priori<\/em> che l’energia aggiunta all’atmosfera dai nostri gas serra cambi qualcosa alle interazioni tra atmosfera e superficie terrestre…<\/p>\n

\"\"
\nEsercizio per studenti in comunicazione della scienza.<\/p>\n

1. Quanti “argomenti fantoccio<\/a>” ci sono nell’abstract<\/p>\n

The potential and serious effects of anthropogenic climate change are often communicated through the soundbite that anthropogenic climate change will produce more extreme weather. This soundbite has become popular with scientists and the media to get the public and governments to act against further increases in global temperature and their associated effects through the communication of scary scenarios, what we term \u201catmosfear.\u201d<\/p>\n

Underlying atmosfear\u2019s appeal, however, are four premises.<\/p>\n

First, atmosfear reduces the complexity of climate change to an identifiable target in the form of anthropogenically forced weather extremes.<\/p>\n

Second, anthropogenically driven weather extremes mandate a responsibility to act to protect the planet and society from harmful and increased risk.<\/p>\n

Third, achieving these ethical goals is predicated on emissions policies.<\/p>\n

Fourth, the end-result of these policies\u2014a non-anthropogenic climate\u2014is assumed to be more benign than an anthropogenically influenced one.<\/p>\n

Atmosfear oversimplifies and misstates the true state of the science and policy concerns in three ways.<\/p>\n

First, weather extremes are only one of the predicted effects of climate change and are best addressed by measures other than emission policies.<\/p>\n

Second, a pre-industrial climate may remain a policy goal, but is unachievable in reality.<\/p>\n

Third, the damages caused by any anthropogenically driven extremes may be overshadowed by the damages caused by increased exposure and vulnerability to the future risk.<\/p>\n

In reality, recent increases in damages and losses due to extreme weather events are due to societal factors. Thus, invoking atmosfear through such approaches as attribution science is not an effective means of either stimulating or legitimizing climate policies.<\/p>\n

2. Quali think tank, fondazioni e presunti enti di ricerca finanziati da BigOil & Coal usano gli stessi argomenti fantoccio? (Le parodie<\/a> dei deniers<\/a>\u00a0non<\/strong> valgono<\/a>.)<\/p>\n

*<\/p>\n

Per una risposta meno allarmista del solito alla domanda “Is science broken?”, rif. l’articolo<\/a> di\u00a0Christie Aschwanden su fivethirtyeight.<\/p>\n

*<\/p>\n

Mentre prendeva in giro le cantonate di un complottista, Sou di Hot Whopper\u00a0<\/a>ha scritto un bell’articolo – come sempre – sulle proiezioni di modelli climatici riducibili alla scala di una contea americana anche da un debuttante, con il\u00a0Climate Explorer della NOAA<\/a>\u00a0e con l’avvertenza di non inserire tutte le proiezioni in una volta, perch\u00e9<\/p>\n

Each of these climate projections is downscaled over the coterminous US at a spatial resolution of 30 arc-seconds (approximately 800 meters),\u00a0resulting in a data archive size of more than 12TB<\/i><\/b>\u00a0(1TB = 1012<\/sup>\u00a0Bytes)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dev’essere un’epidemia (h\/t Climate of Gavin). Stando a Vladimir Jankovic e David Schultz,\u00a0gli scienziati del clima sono rei di diffondere l’atmosfifa (atmosfear), un allarmismo riguardante l’aumento tendenziale della frequenza e\/o intensit\u00e0 degli eventi meteo estremi \u00a0– alluvioni, siccit\u00e0, ondate di calore, tempeste ecc. – in regime di riscaldamento globale. I dati che dimostrano quell’aumento\u00a0sono\u00a0falsificati, si… Continua a leggere Strawman award II – The atmosfear<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,10],"tags":[658,1538,2473],"class_list":["post-30499","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bufala","category-clima","tag-atmosfear","tag-comunicazione-della-scienza","tag-eventi-meteo-estremi","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30499","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30499"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30499\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":44359,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30499\/revisions\/44359"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30499"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30499"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30499"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}