{"id":31427,"date":"2017-02-01T15:28:18","date_gmt":"2017-02-01T14:28:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ocasapiens-dweb.blogautore.repubblica.it\/?p=31427"},"modified":"2021-12-12T19:54:25","modified_gmt":"2021-12-12T18:54:25","slug":"statcheck","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/2017\/02\/01\/statcheck\/","title":{"rendered":"Statcheck"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/debunkingdenialism.files.wordpress.com\/2014\/11\/pvaluessuck.png?w=350&amp;h=200&amp;crop=1\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/debunkingdenialism.com\/2011\/11\/17\/the-top-five-most-annoying-statistical-fallacies\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Fonte<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Sul <em>Guardian<\/em>, Stephen Burany racconta com&#8217;\u00e8 nato <a href=\"https:\/\/mbnuijten.files.wordpress.com\/2013\/08\/nuijtenetal_2016_reportingerrorspsychology.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Statcheck<\/a>, un&#8217;arma nella &#8220;guerra high tech contro la scienza&#8221; come dice il titolo, in realt\u00e0 un algoritmo controverso per identificare abusi del valore <em>p<\/em> negli articoli scientifici:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">The man behind all this controversy was a 25-year-old Dutch scientist named Chris Hartgerink, based at Tilburg University\u2019s Meta-Research Center, which studies bias and error in science. Statcheck was the brainchild of Hartgerink\u2019s colleague Mich\u00e8le Nuijten, who had used the program to conduct a 2015 study that demonstrated that about half of all papers in psychology journals contained a statistical error. Nuijten\u2019s study was written up in <em>Nature<\/em> as a valuable contribution to the growing literature acknowledging bias and error in science \u2013 but she had not published an inventory of the specific errors it had detected, or the authors who had committed them.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">The real flashpoint came months later,when Hartgerink modified Statcheck with some code of his own devising,\u00a0which catalogued the individual errors and posted them online \u2013 sparking uproar across the scientific community.<\/p>\n<p>Interessanti anche i commenti sotto.<\/p>\n<p>Statcheck \u00e8 controverso anche perch\u00e9 produce troppi falsi positivi, come dimostra l&#8217;aneddoto introduttivo di Burany, forse perch\u00e9 \u00e8 stato tarato su pubblicazioni di psicologia, una disciplina che ha avuto parecchi casi clamorosi di dati truccati o inventati. Mi son fatta l&#8217;idea (rudimentale) che fosse un po&#8217; rudimentale, e come dicevo in settembre, pu\u00f2 darsi che i <a href=\"http:\/\/retractionwatch.com\/2016\/09\/02\/heres-why-more-than-50000-psychology-studies-are-about-to-have-pubpeer-entries\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">50 mila articoli<\/a> &#8220;problematici&#8221; scoperti da Hartgerink su 700 mila, usciti tra il 1985 e il 2013 sulle 8 riviste pi\u00f9 serie, non siano cos\u00ec tremendi.<\/p>\n<p>Non trovo sorprendente invece che 1 su 8 contenga una &#8220;inconsistency&#8221; statistica, ma sar\u00e0 un mio pregiudizio.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">***<\/p>\n<p>Non so se il nuovo mensile <em>Nature Human Behaviour <\/em>usa il &#8220;pacchetto&#8221; Statcheck, Fa parte delle quattro riviste multidisciplinari lanciata quest&#8217;anno da Nature, con<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41562-016-0021\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Manifesto for a reproducible science<\/a>&#8221; di John Ioannidis et al.<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41562-016-0040\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Economic insecurity and the rise in gun violence at US schools<\/a>&#8220;,\u00a0un bel lavoro di ricercatori americani che rischiano la museruola<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41562-016-0005\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Childhood forecasting<\/a> of a small segment of the population with a large economic burden&#8221;, in Nuova Zelanda, di Avshalom Caspi et al. e <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41562-016-0019\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">commento <\/a>di Heckman &amp; Garc\u00eda, entrambi raccomandati alle Ong.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Il primo numero \u00e8 a sua volta un manifesto delle ambizioni editoriali.<\/p>\n<p>Nelle recensioni di ricerche pubblicate altrove, segnalo quella di <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41562-017-0051\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Adam Yeeles<\/a>:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Kelly D. Martin from Colorado State University and colleagues from the University of Washington provide evidence to suggest that customers&#8217; vulnerability worries, rather than general privacy concerns, lead to adverse business outcomes, such as customers falsifying information, spreading negative opinions about the firm, and switching behaviour. In a series of experimental and observational studies informed by gossip theory, the authors show that mere access to data can lead to feelings of violation and reduction in trust. A more extreme violation via a data breach hurts the performance of both the breached firm and competitors through spillover effects. Notably, the analyses also indicate that negative outcomes are suppressed by data use transparency and allowing customers control over their own data.<\/p>\n<p>Non ho accesso al <a href=\"http:\/\/journals.ama.org\/doi\/10.1509\/jm.15.0497?code=amma-site\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">paper<\/a>, peccato. Mi sarebbe piaciuto vedere la bibliografia sulla <a href=\"https:\/\/www.psychologytoday.com\/articles\/200105\/the-new-word-gossip\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">teoria del pettegolezzo<\/a>, a parte quella evoluzionista di Robin Dunbar.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">***<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><em>Nature Ecology &amp; Evolution<\/em> &#8211; le altre devo ancora guardarle &#8211; esce all&#8217;inizio del mese, quindi ha gi\u00e0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/natecolevol\/volumes\/1\/issues\/1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> due numeri<\/a>. In quello di gennaio, pieno di cose interessanti, segnalo almeno\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41559-016-0023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Moran e Kanemoto<\/a>: mappano dove sono pi\u00f9 consumate le specie animali e vegetali a rischio, &#8220;l&#8217;impronta globale degli Stati Uniti&#8221;, quella minore e concentrata in Africa dei paesi europei e quella del Giappone.<\/p>\n<p>In quello di febbraio che <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41559-017-0071\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">lode i pipistrelli<\/a>, l&#8217;editore mantiene la promessa di pubblicare risultati negativi con un <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41559-016-0025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">paper<\/a> &#8211; care socie e cari soci del <em>Drosophila melanogaster<\/em>&#8216;s Genetics &amp; Neuroscience F.C. &#8211; sui cambiamenti della proteina ADH che al contrario di quanto sostenuto finora non migliorano la fitness della nostra amata moscerina n\u00e9 la sua capacit\u00e0 di resistere all&#8217;ubriacatura.<br \/>\nCi sono anche articoli di advocacy in favore della biodiversit\u00e0, delle soluzioni &#8220;verde-azzurre&#8221; ecc. che faranno digrignare i denti all&#8217;anti-ambientalista <a href=\"https:\/\/motherboard.vice.com\/en_us\/article\/scott-pruitt-is-an-enemy-of-environmental-protection\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Scott Pruitt<\/a> e al resto del governo Trump&#8230;<br \/>\nLe riviste escono solo in digitale, i primi numeri sono in open access per tutto l&#8217;anno, dopo bisogna essere abbonati. Conviene approfittarne.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">***<\/p>\n<p><strong>Donald &#8220;Jesus Christ&#8221; Trump<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.rightwingwatch.org\/post\/jerry-falwell-jr-confident-of-position-in-trump-administration\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Come previsto<\/a><\/strong>, il consigliere per l&#8217;educazione superiore (college e universit\u00e0) <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/news\/us-news\/jerry-falwell-jr-asked-lead-trump-education-task-force-n715116?cid=par-twitter-feed_20170201\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">scelto<\/a> dal Potus \u00e8 Jerry Falwell Jr., un evangelista devotamente omofobo e razzista, presidente e co-proprietario della Liberty, un&#8217;universit\u00e0 che spaccia lauree in &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.liberty.edu\/academics\/arts-sciences\/creation\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">scienze creazioniste<\/a>&#8220;, versione Terra Giovane (circa 6000 anni):<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Falwell was one of Trump\u2019s earliest and most outspoken Religious Right supporters. He\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.christianpost.com\/news\/liberty-university-president-jerry-falwell-jr-ted-cruz-donald-trump-robo-call-master-politician-dirty-tricks-158836\/\">appeared in Trump campaign ads<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.rightwingwatch.org\/post\/meet-the-rnc-speakers-jerry-falwell-jr\/\">hosted the business mogul at Liberty, sang his praises<\/a>\u2014even going so far as to\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.rightwingwatch.org\/post\/falwell-jr-donald-trump-like-jesus-christ-martin-luther-king-jr-and-jerry-falwell\/\">compare him to Jesus Christ<\/a>\u00a0and suggest that\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.rightwingwatch.org\/post\/jerry-falwell-jr-donald-trump-is-americas-king-david\/\">God called on him to run for president<\/a>\u2014and joined Trump in leveling harsh attacks against Muslims,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/acts-of-faith\/wp\/2015\/12\/05\/liberty-university-president-if-more-good-people-had-concealed-guns-we-could-end-those-muslims\/\">telling<\/a>\u00a0students that \u201cif more good people had concealed-carry permits, then we could end those Muslims before they walked in.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Quanto alla <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/neurobollocks\/status\/826578798795694082\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">candidata<\/a> segretaria all&#8217;educazione, oltre a plagi e conflitti d&#8217;interesse ha investimenti in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.eclectablog.com\/2017\/01\/betsy-devos-is-not-just-unqualified-shes-dangerous.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Neurocore<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Stranamente, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.desmogblog.com\/ken-haapala\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kenneth Haapala<\/a> &#8211; SEPP e \u00a0Heartland Big Oil&amp;Col Institute &#8211; che\u00a0<strong><a href=\"http:\/\/democrats-naturalresources.house.gov\/imo\/media\/doc\/2017-01-24_RG_Whitehouse_NOAA.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">era incaricato<\/a><\/strong> di trovare per la NOAA, nel<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/climatesciencedefensefund.org\/2017\/02\/01\/csldf-files-brief-to-protect-noaa-climate-scientists\/\"> mirino <\/a><\/strong>da anni, direttori altrettanto corrotti, sembra esser stato <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mcclatchydc.com\/news\/politics-government\/white-house\/article129907134.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rimandato a casa.<\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">*<\/p>\n<p>Su\u00a0<em><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.zeit.de\/wissen\/geschichte\/2017-02\/adolf-hitler-chancellor-appointment-anniversary\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Die Zeit<\/a><\/strong>, <\/em>Volker Ullrich\u00a0ricorda oggi ai tedeschi com&#8217;\u00e8 iniziata la dittatura nazista:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Few sensed what Hitler\u2019s appointment as chancellor actually meant, and many reacted to the event with shocking indifference&#8230;\u00a0This, despite the fact that Hitler had plainly explained in &#8220;Mein Kampf&#8221; and countless speeches before 1933 what he wanted to do once in power: to abolish the democratic &#8220;system&#8221; of Weimar Germany, to &#8220;eradicate&#8221; Marxism (by which he meant both social democracy and communism) and to &#8220;remove&#8221; the Jews from Germany&#8230;<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">***<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/science\/2017\/feb\/01\/facts-are-the-reason-science-is-losing-in-the-current-war-on-reason-science-communication\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Oh dear<\/a>, preaching \u00a0fact-free &#8220;effective science comunication&#8221; while doing it wrong&#8230; <a href=\"https:\/\/andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com\/2017\/01\/31\/effective-science-communication\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">again.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fonte Sul Guardian, Stephen Burany racconta com&#8217;\u00e8 nato Statcheck, un&#8217;arma nella &#8220;guerra high tech contro la scienza&#8221; come dice il titolo, in realt\u00e0 un algoritmo controverso per identificare abusi del valore p negli articoli scientifici: The man behind all this controversy was a 25-year-old Dutch scientist named Chris Hartgerink, based at Tilburg University\u2019s Meta-Research Center,&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/2017\/02\/01\/statcheck\/\">Continua a leggere <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Statcheck<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,13,14,15,19,25,26],"tags":[322,1579,3727,4729,4731,5928,6752,7135],"class_list":["post-31427","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ambiente","category-drosophila-fanzine","category-ecologia","category-economia","category-matematica","category-politica","category-psicologia","tag-algoritmi","tag-consumi","tag-jerry-fallwell-jr","tag-nature-ecology-evolution","tag-nature-human-behaviour","tag-riproducibilita","tag-teoria-del-pettegolezzo","tag-valore-p","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31427","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31427"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31427\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":44675,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31427\/revisions\/44675"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31427"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31427"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archivio.ocasapiens.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31427"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}