Sintesi

Saranno i $110 miliardi di danni dell’anno scorso nei soli Stati Uniti o la prossima pubblicazione della sintesi (in bozza) del nuovo rapporto IPCC, vol. I contro la quale i bigoilisti si sono già mobilitati?

La nuova direttrice di Science non ha paura della caccia alle streghe. Ha deciso di anticipare la sintesi con uno speciale sugli impatti dei cambiamenti climatici, fatto quasi tutto di rassegne delle ricerche più recenti:

Anticipating the future under the influence of climate change is one of the most important challenges of our time, and the topic of the special section in this issue of Science (see p. 472). The natural systems that provide oxygen, clean water, food, storm and erosion protection, natural products, and the potential for future resources, such as new genetic stocks for cultivation, must be protected, not just because it is part of good stewardship but also so that they can take care of us. But even the first step of modeling the effects of greenhouse gas sources and sinks on future temperatures requires input from atmospheric scientists, oceanographers, ecologists, economists, policy analysts, and others. The problem is even more difficult because the very factors that influence temperature changes, such as ocean circulation and terrestrial ecosystem responses, will themselves be altered as the climate changes. With so many potential climate-sensitive factors to consider, scientists need ways to narrow down the range of possible environmental outcomes so that they know what specific problems to tackle.

Per esempio
environmental changes brought on by climate changes will be too rapid for many species to adapt to, leading to widespread extinctions. Even species that might tolerate the new environment could nevertheless decline as the ecosystems on which they depend collapse. The oceans will become more stratified and less productive. If such ecosystem problems come to pass, the changes will affect humans in profound ways. The loss in ocean productivity will be detrimental for the 20% of the population that depends on the seas for nutrition. Crops will fail more regularly, especially on land at lower latitudes where food  is in shortest supply…
We are not just experiencing increases in greenhouse gas emissions but also eutrophication, pollution of the air and water, massive land conversion, and many other insults, all of which will have interacting and accumulating effects. The real problem we need to solve in order to truly understand how Earth’s environment may change is that of cumulative impacts…

Introduzione e indice.

Molti articoli saranno utili alle ONG, a cominciare dalla rassegna di Tim Wheeler e Joachim von Braun sulla sicurezza alimentare. “Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict” mi sembra sbagliato – “all correlation and no causation” – ma ne sto discutendo e magari sbaglio io.
Ancora più sintetico l‘op-ed del NY Times, ma è rivolto ai Repubblicani.

In tema, John A & Dana N. sul Guardian; prossimamente in tv il “contrarianism” di Sua Signoria Christopher Monckton,  falsificatore seriale di grafici.

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Roars non va in vacanza e continua a correggere le classifiche dell’ANVUR:

la produzione maldestra di classifiche che si smentiscono a vicenda rende tangibile la fragilità di questo strumento, poco o per nulla scientifico, e mette a nudo le carenze scientifiche e culturali del consiglio direttivo dell’agenzia. Distinguere la valutazione dalla sua parodia è un passaggio ineludibile per uscire dalle secche in cui siamo.