Su Scientific Reports, l’altro ieri è uscito un paper piuttosto originale, forse dovuto a un’epidemia d’orticaria fra superstar del clima:
Tropospheric Warming Over The Past Two Decades, Benjamin D. Santer, Susan Solomon, Frank J. Wentz, Qiang Fu, Stephen Po-Chedley, Carl Mears, Jeffrey F. Painter e Céline Bonfils
After a recent Senate confirmation hearing, Scott Pruitt – the new Administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency – received a written question regarding observed warming estimates. In response, Mr. Pruitt claimed that “over the past two decades satellite data indicates there has been a leveling off of warming”1. We test this claim here. In the following, we assume the satellite data referred to by Mr. Pruitt are measurements of the temperature of the lowest layer of the atmosphere (the troposphere). These measurements were the focus of recent Congressional testimony2. We update and extend the analysis in ref. 3 using satellite temperature data spanning the period from January 1979 to December 2016.
Segue una spiegazione per il dummy di cosa misurano i sensori satellitari e un’analisi dell’andamento lineare a ventennio per le varie serie di temperature. Non per rovinare il finale a sorpresa, ma …
Results
In each of the six satellite datasets, all 20-year TMT trends are positive, irrespective of the trend start date.
Recent 20-year trends are smaller than most of the earlier 20-year trend values. This is due to the combined effects of multiple factors: the anomalous warmth at the beginning of the last 20 years (arising from a large El Niño event in 1997/98), the shift from a warm phase to a cold phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation in the late 1990s14,15,16,17, changes in other modes of internal variability18,19,20, a succession of moderate volcanic eruptions in the early 21st century21,22,23, a long and low minimum in solar output during the last solar cycle24, and an increase in anthropogenic sulphate pollution25, 26.
Tiè.
Altra Schadenfreude del venerdì:
– sul Guardian, Dana Nuccitelli racconta come una complottista di Fox News, nominata vice-consulente della Casa Bianca per la sicurezza nazionale, ha fatto abboccare Trump e trumpisti alla falsa copertina di Time che annunciava l’era glaciale:
– nella cronaca finanziaria, Vanguard e Black Rock – che gestiscono rispettivamente investimenti per $4 e $5,4 trilioni, briciole dei quali in Exxon Mobil – chiedono agli azionisti di Exxon Mobil di bocciarne le bufale sui rischi climatici;
– nella cronaca giudiziaria, la Corte d’appello del Texas conferma che Exxon Mobil deve consegnare i documenti sulla produzione e diffusione agli azionisti di bufale climatiche al Procuratore Schneiderman, perché è indagata nello stato di New York e non in Texas dove la poveretta aveva fatto ricorso:
“The unanimous appeals court rightly affirmed the lower court’s decision and rejected Exxon’s frivolous claims, which were merely one of the many tactics the company has employed in its campaign of delay and distraction,” said Schneiderman’s spokeswoman, Amy Spitalnick.
(la legge prevede la “full disclosure” dei rischi per le aziende quotate in borsa.)
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Dopo che una donna di 37 anni è morta di morbillo a Essen tre giorni fa, il governo tedesco ha presentato una nuova legge:
Parents in Germany who fail to seek medical advice on vaccinating their children could face fines of up to €2,500.
Under the plan, the children of parents who fail to seek vaccination advice could be expelled from their daycare centre. The law is expected to be adopted next month.
da BBC. Il ministro della salute ha escluso un obbligo come quello deciso in Italia.